PSIR QUESTION... 27. Examine the relevance of nuclear deterrence in the age of complex interdependence. What is the role of norms in nuclear non-proliferation

Today's question....Examine the relevance of nuclear deterrence in the age of complex interdependence. What is the role of norms in nuclear non-proliferation?

Points -

1. Explain nuclear deterrence
2. Explain complex interdependence
3. Explain how complex interdependence has rendered nuclear deterrence ineffective
4. Conclude first part on following lines
5. Examine the role of norms in nuclear non-proliferation

Answer -

●Explain nuclear deterrence Deterrence is a realist approach to peace. It means discouraging an aggressor to act, by instilling doubt or fear in their mind about the possible consequences of the action. THOMAS SHELLING describes nuclear deterrence as the idea that if there were even a small risk that conventional attack would cause an opponent to escalate to nuclear conflict in response, that risk would deter the conventional attack. Realists consider nuclear deterrence as the most important factor behind the nonoccurrence of Third World War. They argue that the US-USSR rivalry, during the postsecond world war era, largely remained ‘cold’ because of the possession of nuclear weapons by both sides. It deterred aggression because of the logic of ‘mutually assured

destruction’ (MAD). Both realized that in the event of a nuclear war, there would be no ‘winner’. The cost of the ‘victory’ far exceeds the potential ‘benefits’, rendering nuclear war infeasible.

●Explain complex interdependence KEOHANE and NYE Jr. gave the ‘complex interdependence’ theory in late 1970’s in their book “Power and Interdependence” to explain the state of post war world order. The scholars argue that the post-war ‘complex interdependence’ is qualitatively different from earlier and simpler kinds of interdependence, as now international relations is not merely, or even primarily, state-to-state relations as realists believe. Various transnational actors are increasingly playing an important role in driving international relations.

 ●Explain how complex interdependence has rendered nuclear deterrence ineffective Such structural changes have significant consequences in international politics. The scholars argue that in contrast to the previous era of ‘simpler interdependence’, the ‘low politics’ of economics and social welfare has higher priority over the ‘high politics’ of security and survival under complex interdependence of post war era. Because of this, the military force and nuclear deterrence is a less useful, and even irrelevant, instrument of policy. Power resources, other than military ones are of increasing importance today, for example, negotiating skills. Complex interdependence clearly implies a far more friendly and cooperative relationship among states. According to Keohane and Nye, complex interdependence is most evident in Western Europe, North America, Japan, Australia and New Zealand: in short the industrialised, pluralist countries. The relevance of complex interdependence grows as modernisation unfolds, and it is thus especially applicable to the relations between advanced Western countries. Also, in the era of complex interdependence the biggest challenge to security of the states is not from each other. Rather it is from asymmetric actors like global terrorist groups. These groups can’t be deterred through nuclear weapons possessed by powerful states, rendering them ineffective as instruments of state security.

●Conclude first part on following lines Notwithstanding the optimistic and progressive vision that complex interdependence paints, possibility of military conflict and hence nuclear deterrence is not completely irrelevant.

Keohane and Nye have themselves highlighted the continued relevance of realist belief regarding possible conflict among states. They argue, “it is not impossible to imagine dramatic conflict or revolutionary change in which the use of military force over an economic issue or among advanced industrial countries might become plausible. Then realist assumptions would again be reliable guide to events.” For this reason complex interdependence is considered a realist strand in liberal theory. They believe that relations between states cannot be explained through anarchy alone, they are rather in the form of a cobweb. There is a simultaneous existence of cooperation in economic areas while balancing in other strategic areas.

●Examine the role of norms in nuclear non-proliferation Notwithstanding the fact that nuclear weapons continue to be regarded by realists as effective tool of deterrence and security, the nuclear proliferation has been rather slow, while some regions have even resolved to make their region as nuclear-weapons free zone. Social constructivists prescribe the role of taboos, norms and epistemic communities to explain the reason behind nuclear non-proliferation. According to NINA TANNENWALD, nuclear weapons haven’t been used, not only because of the assured mutual destruction, but also because of the role of norms and values. USA could not use nuclear weapons to resolve its conflicts with Vietnam or Iran because of the stigma that has been attached to the use of nuclear weapons. Sigma has acted as moral deterrence. She has mentioned factors for the growth of norms and taboos such as global movements against nuclear weapons, activism by UN, etc. Moreover, norms likes No First Use; no use against non-nuclear weapon states; and the use of nuclear of nuclear weapons as a last resort have also played a role in nuclear non-proliferation. Intellectuals, policy makers have all contributed in the growth of consciousness, evolution of norms and treaties like NPT, which have played a role in stopping nuclear proliferation